Looking back at the 2020 NBA Draft, I can't help but marvel at how dramatically some careers have diverged in just a few short years. As someone who's followed basketball drafting for over a decade, I've learned that evaluating talent is both science and art - and sometimes even the most sophisticated analytics get it completely wrong. This draft class has produced some absolute gems picked outside the lottery while several top selections have struggled to find their footing in the league. The fascinating thing about draft evaluation is how much context matters - something that reminded me of coach Tim Cone's recent comments about the Philippine Basketball Association, where he noted how we often underestimate teams when key players are in and out of the lineup. That same principle applies to how we judge NBA draftees - sometimes circumstances rather than talent determine whether a pick looks like a steal or bust.

When we talk about steals, Anthony Edwards at number one certainly isn't one - but my goodness, what an incredible pick he's turned out to be. The Timberwolves got exactly what they hoped for and then some. But the real steals began emerging later in the draft. Tyrese Haliburton at pick 12 continues to baffle me - how did eleven teams pass on that level of playmaking and basketball IQ? I've watched every one of his games since he entered the league, and his court vision is simply elite. The Kings trading him might go down as one of the worst decisions in recent memory. Then there's Desmond Bane at 30th - I remember watching his college tape and thinking he'd be a solid role player, but he's developed into so much more. His three-point shooting at 43.4% last season was top-10 in the league, and his defensive improvements have been remarkable. The Grizzlies essentially got an All-Star caliber player with the last pick in the first round.

The second round produced even more incredible value. I've been particularly impressed with Isaiah Joe, who went 49th to the 76ers before finding his footing with Oklahoma City. His shooting numbers are ridiculous - 44.9% from three this past season on nearly five attempts per game. That's not just good for a second-round pick, that's elite shooting by any standard. Jaden McDaniels at 28th has developed into one of the league's premier perimeter defenders while providing efficient scoring. What separates these steals from other picks isn't just talent - it's fit and development. The organizations that drafted them put them in positions to succeed and nurtured their specific skill sets.

Now for the tougher conversation - the busts. This is always painful because these are young men's careers we're discussing, but evaluation comes with the territory. James Wiseman at number two stands out most prominently. The Warriors envisioned him as their future centerpiece, but injuries and fit issues derailed that vision. He's shown flashes - I watched him put up 30 points against Brooklyn last season - but the consistency hasn't been there. What's particularly telling is that Golden State, an organization known for player development, couldn't unlock his potential. Then there's Killian Hayes at seventh overall to Detroit - a player with undeniable court vision but shooting limitations that have proven difficult to overcome. His career 38.2% field goal percentage simply isn't sustainable for a guard in today's NBA.

What fascinates me about draft evaluation is how much we overlook situational factors. This brings me back to that Cone quote about underestimating teams when key pieces are in and out of the lineup - the same applies to how we judge draftees. Some players land in perfect situations with coaches who understand how to use them, while others get buried on depth charts or forced into roles that don't suit their skills. Take LaMelo Ball at third - he went to a Charlotte organization that immediately built around his strengths. Meanwhile, players like Obi Toppin, while not complete busts, haven't had the same opportunity to shine consistently. The Knicks drafted him eighth overall but never found the right role for his athletic talents before trading him to Indiana.

The international picks from this draft deserve special mention. Deni Avdija at ninth has developed into a solid two-way player for Washington, though perhaps not the star some envisioned. Meanwhile, Theo Maledon at 34th has bounced around despite showing promise. The risk-reward calculus with international prospects remains one of the most challenging aspects of draft evaluation - the sample sizes are often smaller, the competition levels vary dramatically, and adjustment periods can be lengthy. I've always been more cautious with international evaluations, preferring players with proven track records against NCAA competition, though that bias has cost me in evaluations before.

As I reflect on this draft class three years later, what strikes me most is how quickly narratives can change. Players we wrote off too early sometimes blossom with better situations, while early successes can fade just as rapidly. The development curve isn't linear - it's filled with setbacks and breakthroughs that test both players and organizations. The true steals aren't just the players who outperformed their draft position, but those who found organizations committed to their development. Similarly, the busts often represent systemic failures as much as individual shortcomings. Looking ahead, I'm particularly curious to see how players like Tyrese Maxey (21st pick) and Immanuel Quickley (25th) continue developing - both have already far exceeded their draft positions but might have even higher ceilings. The 2020 draft reminds us that talent evaluation requires patience, context, and the humility to acknowledge how much we still don't know about projecting young players to the professional level.